Will the price collapse repeat itself?

Litecoin price rose 5% to retest $100 on Tuesday morning. However, historical data indicates that LTC is likely to decline as the Litecoin halving date approaches. Are the miners already in a sell position?And Anticipating some tough times ahead?

The long-awaited Litecoin Halving is scheduled for August 2, 2023. Despite a 5% price rally this week, major stakeholders across the LTC ecosystem seem to be taking bearish positions.

Historical on-chain data reveals a subtle “price crash” trend in Litecoin in the weeks leading up to previous halvings in 2015 and 2019.

Before Litecoin’s first halving event in 2015, the LTC price peaked at $7.54 on July 10 before dropping 42% towards $4.40 on August 5, the date of the halving.

A similar pattern occurred during the 2019 cycle; LTC price peaked at $142 on June 23, 2015, before dropping 53% towards $93 on the August 5 halving date. The post-halving downtrend continued for a few months before Litecoin entered another rally in January 2020.

Will history repeat itself again this year?

Litecoin miners depleted reserves in July

After adding 300,000 coins in June, Litecoin miners began depleting their LTC reserves in July. IntoTheBlockData on miner reserves shows that between July 5th and July 11th, Litecoin miners mined 90,000 coins.

Litecoin Halving Selling Percentage | Miner Reserves Data, July 2023 | source: IntoTheBlock

Miner reserves Track real-time changes in wallet balances of recognized miners and mining pools. When miners deplete their reserves, as we saw above, this indicates that they are looking to take profits at current prices.

The above chart shows that despite the recent rally in the price of LTC, the two metals took a bearish stance ahead of the halving event.

Historical price data from 2015 and 2019 shows that the LTC price collapsed twice immediately after each halving. In an effort to manage the selling frenzy after the halving, many miners often look to offload a portion of their reserves as the date approaches.

This has caused LTC prices to collapse towards halving dates in the past. If history repeats itself, the continued rise in Litecoin prices may be short-lived.

Cryptocurrency traders are mounting sell orders across the exchanges

In further confirmation of the bearish outlook, several Litecoin holders piled orders to sell their LTC coins ahead of the halving.

As it stands, cryptocurrency traders have put up 414,000 LTC coins for sale. Meanwhile, potential buyers only placed active orders to buy 411,000 LTC.

Litecoin Halves Litecoin Selling Percentage |  Agg.  Exchange order books, July 2023
Litecoin Halves Litecoin Selling Percentage | Agg. Exchange Order Books, July 2023 | source: IntoTheBlock

the Depth of the exchange market in series The graph shows the real-time price distribution of active limit orders placed across recognized exchanges.

Currently, supply of Litecoin across exchanges exceeds demand by more than 3,000 coins. If, as historical trends suggest, bearish momentum builds before the halving, LTC could enter a major price correction.

LTC Price Prediction: Possible decline towards $80

Given the historical trends and the bearish factors identified above, LTC is likely to drop to $80 in the coming weeks.

Litecoin must drop below $90 for the bears to be confident of a reversal. But, as shown below, 1.26 million investors bought 11.8 million LTC at an average price of $88.42.

This group of holders can set up a supportive buying wall to avoid slipping into a net loss position. However, if the bearish momentum grows as expected, Litecoin could drop sharply below $8.

Litecoin Halves Litecoin Selling Percentage |  IOMAP, July 2023
Litecoin (LTC) price prediction | IOMAP, July 2023 | source: IntoTheBlock

Conversely, the bulls could hold their stronghold if LTC measured the $100 resistance. However, a group of 572,000 investors bought 3.63 million LTC at a minimum price of $100.95. They could inadvertently cause a drawdown if they choose to sell their holdings in the midst of the halving uncertainty.

Although it is unlikely, if the resistance recedes, LTC could reach a new high at $120 in 2023.


In line with Trust Project guidelines, this price analysis article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. BeInCrypto is committed to providing accurate and unbiased reporting, but market conditions are subject to change without notice. Always do your own research and consult with a professional before making any financial decisions.

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